Saturday, December 24, 2011

Videogame Sales conundrum


While doing research for videogame history in both a class and a club I stumbled onto something odd. The numbers for videogames sold to videogame consoles seemed off. I had heard that the the Playstation 2 had sold 120 million units, but then the highest sold game was 17 million. Something was off, and needed to be investigated.
The first major system with games that could be plugged in was the Atari 2600. It sold approximately 30 million units. The highest selling game was Pac Man at 7 million. This was not the greatest version of Pac Man but was expected to sell 12 million on the initial run. The next best seller was Pitfall at 4 million, and after that the others are lucky to reach 1 million entirely. So the potential buyers of the system were somewhere around 7 million based on the Pac Man sales, or double the amount of Pit Fall games sold. So, the Atari customers were somewhere around the ¼ range of consoles sold.
These numbers could be off, So we will continue going through to the next big selling system. The Nintendo Entertainment System sold 61.9 million units#, and the best selling game Super Mario Bros. was included with it at 40 million units#. The next best selling game was Super Mario 3 at 18 million or half of that of the original Super Mario Brothers. Mario Mania was majorly pushed by Nintendo as proof by their commercial for it having kids everywhere forming up to make a giant Mario face. The list continues and gives mostly Nintendo games as the major sellers. The reason for this was a problematic control issue Nintendo had with the sales of Cartridges. A 3rd party would sell somewhere around 1-2 million. However Dragon Warrior sold 3-4 million. So, the potential buyers were somewhere around 20 to 40 million, but the amount that a 3rd party could sell would be 2-3 million.
The next generation actually holds problems because the best selling systems were Super NES (49 million) and Sega Genesis(40 million). Placed together they would be 89 million, but an unknown number had both. To alleviate this the guess number of having both would be ⅓ so the amount of units sold would be about 59 million. The reason for this is entirely based on the monetary needs. David Sheff points out that Nintendo sold to kids to adults, and Sega attempted to sell to teens and college students. The mix of the two would have been at the college level.
The top selling game would be a toss up between Super Mario World (20 million) and Sonic the Hedgehog(15 million). However, both were sold with the system so we must go to the next slot to check. Sonic 2 was 6 million units and Donkey Kong Country was 8 million units. The 3rd party sellers were relatively lower at 1-2 million units for Genesis and 4-6 million in Super Nintendo. So the 3rd party sellers were somewhere around 2.5-4 million units potential, which is about 1/15 of the potential buyers. The sales for Nintendo or Sega are better at 7 million which is ⅛ of the potential. Still, the numbers are way lower than  console units sold.
Playstation sold for 102.49 million consoles, but the highest selling game was Gran Turismo at 10.85 million. Playstation did not sell with a game in it, so all sales were from outside of the console, also 3rd party games sold just as easily as first party since Grant Turismo was the only real game by Sony. The rest of the list is 5-9 million sellers. Getting the exact math on who didn’t buy what would take numbers and information that is not available, so the best bet is to double the amount of sales for Final Fantasy VII rounded up, so 20 million potential buyers. Approximately ⅕ of consoles had potential buyers.
Playstation 2 sold for about 150 million units, and the highest selling game was Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas at 17 million units sold. By and far the best selling games on the list were either Gran Turismo or Grand Theft Auto games. So the potential would be at the San Andreas levels because it was the last game in the Grand Theft Auto III series. So, about 1/10 of the consoles sold had potential buyers. If San Andreas sold for $50 for each game it would make $850 million.
Into this generation we get into two different groups, the PS3/XBox 360 crowd and the Wii crowd. PS3 sold about 56 million while XBox 360 sold 57.6 million. A look at the games list shows that it is the same potential buyers for both systems. So, although the added number is about 113.6 million, the reality places consoles sold at 56.8 potential customers. Also, the best selling game was Modern Warfare 2 and it sold 4.8 million (PS3) and 7.5 (360) So a potential customer amount of 13.3 million potential customers from games sold. This places the potential versus consoles sold at ¼ approximately.
The Wii sold 89.4 million units, and the best selling not packaged game was Mario Kart Wii at 28.2 million. The first party Nintendo games pretty much dominate the sales chart and keep to a 20 million average. The potential buyers would then be about ⅓ of consoles sold.
The big question is how are these numbers working. For Sony and Microsoft systems, there is the high potential of obsolescence. While working at the Game Center, we were basically told that the PS3 and Xbox 360s were replaced every year. This is from how the systems were used within the game center though, and perhaps a bad guess. Therefor, let us make a systems life time within PS3 or Xbox 360 as that of two years. The systems have been around for about six years, and thus could be shown to following the numbers like that. It would make Modern Warfare selling to 13/19 potential buyers.
Nintendo sells there systems with very well built designs. There is very little chance they would break down, so the ⅓ for Wii still stands.
However, it would explain the Playstations life span. New types of the same system, and break downs would make the numbers go higher than how they are now. There are no real numbers on this, so it is just a guess for the moment.
The next thought is that many sales are from rentals or the used market. There have been complaints that Gamestop has killed many potential sales for videogames#. This would show that the sales were actually living up to the consoles sold. Once again, the numbers were hard to find so it must be left up to speculation.
Still, the potential buyer and console sold amount leaves an interesting thought. What happened to the PS2 buyers? Why do people buy a system and then not really play it? What is the deeper thought on the matter?
So, having looked at seven generations of games, going from Atari 2600 to Wii, there appears to be a gap. Why is a good question, but the numbers and data are not found yet.

No comments:

Post a Comment